​​Meanwhile in Jerusalem

此时的耶路撒冷

Five reasons the Palestinian public has been relatively quiet so far in reaction toTrump’s Jerusalem announcement.

迄今为止,巴勒斯坦公众对川普的耶路撒冷声明反应相对冷淡的五个原因。

The weekend before last marked the 30th anniversary of the first Palestinian uprising, or intifada. Thousands lost their lives in the fighting that ensued after four Palestinians were killed in a traffic collision with an Israeli truck in early December 1987. The death toll resulting from a second uprising in 2000 was even higher than the original.

上周末是巴勒斯坦第一次起义的三十周年纪念日。1987年12月初,4名巴勒斯坦人在与一辆以色列卡车发生的交通碰撞中死亡,随后,数千人在与此有关的斗争中丧生。而在2000年的第二次起义中,死亡人数甚至比比第一次起义还要高得多。

The Hamas leadership is hankering for a rematch. After President Donald Trump conferred U.S. recognition upon Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s most senior political chief, called for a “day of rage”as a launch pad for an “intifada of freedom for Jerusalem and the West Bank.” A spokesman for the Gaza-based organization was even more dramatic. Trump’s decision “opens the gates of hell,” he declared.

哈马斯(Hamas)领导集团渴望再来一次较量。在 唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总统授予了美国对耶路撒冷以色列首都地位的认可 之后,哈马斯的最高政治首脑伊斯梅尔•哈尼亚(Ismail Haniyeh) 呼吁设立一个“盛怒日”,来作为“为了耶路撒冷和约旦河西岸的自由而起义”的一个开端。一个来自总部位于加沙的组织的发言人甚至更引人注意,他声称道:“特朗普的这个决定,打开了‘地狱之门’”。

But the response of thePalestinian public has been lukewarm. Jerusalem was decidedly calm on the morning following Trump’s pronouncement and it has largely stayed so. International opprobrium notwithstanding, clashes between Israeli troops and Palestinian protestors have not escalated beyond the almost perfunctory. While casualties on either side should surely be mourned, there has been no widespread out break of hostilities toward Israel. There are good reasons for this.

然而,巴勒斯坦公众对此的反应却一直很冷淡。在特朗普的声明之后的第二个早上,耶路撒冷显然很平静,并且很大程度地保持着这个状态。尽管受到国际社会的谴责,以色利军队和巴勒斯坦抗议者之间的冲突,在这种几乎敷衍的态度下,并没有进一步升级。尽管任何一方的伤亡都应当被哀悼,但并没有广泛爆发针对以色列的敌对行动。这是有原因的。

Natural Causes: It’s winter inJerusalem. Experience has shown that inclement weather tends to dampen Palestinian (and Israeli) appetites for conflict. The cold and rain have kept many would-be protestors at home, huddled around their warm radiators.

自然原因:事件发生时正值耶路撒冷的冬天。经验表明,阴冷严寒的天气会倾向于减缓巴勒斯坦人(和以色列人)对冲突的欲望。寒冷和雨水已经让许多潜在的抗议者们都呆在家里,挤在他们温暖的取暖器周围。

There’s also the fatigue factor. If fruitless peace negotiations have done little to improve the lot ofPalestinians, countless rounds of violence have done even less. The security closures, checkpoints and searches with which Israel responds to Palestinian terrorism—stabbings, car rammings, missile attacks—act as a deterrent. No doubt many Palestinians have concluded that rioting actually sets back the cause of their independence.

还有疲劳因素。如果毫无成果的和平谈判对改善巴勒斯坦人的生活毫无帮助,那么不计其数的暴力事件能起到的作用就更少了。以色列针对巴勒斯坦的恐怖主义行动(包括刺杀、汽车袭击、导弹袭击)的回应行动,像是封锁边境进行安全检查、检查站和搜查都起到了震慑作用。毫无疑问,许多巴勒斯坦人已经得出结论,那就是暴乱实际上阻碍了他们的独立事业。

All by Myself: The days of thePalestinians as the cause célèbre of Arabia appear to be ending. It’s not that the Saudis, Emiratis, and the rest of the Sunni world are indifferent to the plight of their Palestinian brothers and sisters. It’s that life is dynamic and the Palestinians have dropped a few notches on the hit parade.

以下全来自于我本人:巴勒斯坦人作为阿拉伯地区最瞩目、最重要的事业的时代似乎即将结束。并不是沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和逊尼派世界的其他国家对他们巴勒斯坦兄弟姐妹的困境无动于衷。而是因为生活动荡多变,巴勒斯坦人在这个大队伍中下降了一些名次。

With bigger ticket items like the Iranian nuclear threat and the fate of Syria hanging in the balance, erstwhile champions of the Palestinians have had to prioritize. And for many, limited bandwidth means that Palestine can wait. And if that isn’t demoralizing enough for the Palestinians, Israel, their nemesis, has even emerged as a key ally for the Arab nations seeking to beat back Shi‘a influence in the region. Taking on mightyIsrael is a tall order for the Palestinians alone.

由于一些更大的项目悬而未决,诸如伊朗的核威胁和叙利亚命运,巴勒斯坦昔日的拥护者们不得不优先考虑这些项目。还有更多的原因,有限的带宽【这里比喻人们的注意力有限。译注】意味着巴勒斯坦得等待。如果这还不足以让巴勒斯坦人意志消沉,那么他们的死敌以色列甚至已经成为阿拉伯国家找机会击退什叶派在该地区影响力的一个重要盟友。而单独挑战强大的以色列对巴勒斯坦人来说太过艰巨。

Much Ado AboutNothing: All the enthusiasm in Israel aside, Trump’s words have little practical significance. Israelis are certainly pleased that their foremost ally has bestowed de jure acceptance of its de facto capital, but pretty much everything else remains the same as before. The chances of America’s new position on Jerusalem setting off an immediate, global avalanche of recognition are slim to none.

无事生非:除了以色列对此的热情以外,特朗普的话几乎没有什么实际意义。以色利人当然对他们最重要的盟友在法律上承认他们事实上的首都感到高兴,但是几乎所有其他事物都一直保持着之前的样子。美国在耶路撒冷问题上的新态度,难以在全球范围内立即产生广泛的认同。

The U.S. Embassy will remain in Tel Aviv for the foreseeable future. The State Department’s point man on the Middle East has clarified that there has been“no change in [U.S.] policy with respect to consular practice or passport issuance,” and that the President’s decision “does not touch upon issues of boundaries, of sovereignty, or geographic borders.” And Trump himself reiterated his commitment to “support a two-state solution if agreed to by both sides.” Symbolism is obviously a big deal where Jerusalem is concerned, but smart Palestinian money isn’t getting worked up over mere rhetoric.

在可预见的未来,美国大使馆将继续留在特拉维夫。美国国务院(The State department)负责中东事务的负责人澄清说“美国关于领事实践和签发护照上的政策没有变化”,“总统的决定没有涉及到边界、主权或是地理边界。”特朗普本人也重申到“将在双方都同意的情况下支持两国方案(two-state solution)”。在耶路撒冷问题上,象征主义显然是主要考量,但是聪明的巴勒斯坦资本不会仅仅因为修辞而被调动。

Where It Stops NobodyKnows: It’s comparatively easy to start an uprising, but much harder to ride the tiger’s back. Despite all the difficulties, the powers-that-be in the Palestinian Authority feel that they have a relatively good thing going. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas confessed back in 2009 that he was in no hurry to move forward. As he put it, “In the West Bank we have a good reality… the people are living a normal life.”

无人知晓何处停止:相对而言,发起一次起义更容易一些,但是骑在虎背上却难的多。尽管存在着种种困难,但巴勒斯坦权力机构的当权者确认为,他们当前的处境还算相对不错。巴勒斯坦的总统马哈默德•阿巴斯(Mahmoud Abbas)早在2009年承认,他并没有急着继续向前推进。正如他所说“在约旦河西岸,我们有一个很好的现状…人们正过着一种正常的生活。”

A vicious cycle ofPalestinian resistance and Israeli containment operations runs the risk ofturning violent. It could spiral into the disintegration of vital security cooperation between the parties, cooperation which helps maintain a semblance of order within the P.A. and the continued control of its government. Abbas and his cohort are as unhappy with Trump’s move as the Palestinian rank-and-file, but will toil to keep the intifada genie in its bottle for the sake of preserving their rule.

巴勒斯坦的抵抗和以色列遏制行动之间的恶性循环有演变成暴力的危险。而这种恶性循环有可能使巴党派之间形成的重要安全合作解体。这个合作有助于巴勒斯坦民族权力机构(简称P.A,全称:The Palestinian National Authority)维持一个表面的秩序,并且继续控制着政府。阿巴斯和他的支持者们对特朗普的行动和巴勒斯坦的普通民众一样不满,但为了他们的统治,他们仍会艰难地让起义这个魔仆继续呆在他的神灯里。

Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop: Finally, the Palestinians have every cause to show restraint in the immediate term as events play out. An unpredictable administration in Washington might still pull more rabbits out of its hat—and these new ones could be friendlier to Palestinian aspirations.

提心吊胆地等待着结果(谚语):最后,随着事态的发展,巴勒斯坦人有充分的理由在短期内表现出克制。在华盛顿的一个不可预测的政府可能仍然会从它的帽子里拉出更多的兔子——而这些新兔子有可能对巴勒斯坦人的愿景更友好。

Trump’s advisers are still at work on his “ultimate deal” for peace between Israelis andPalestinians. His UN Ambassador, Nikki Haley, said a little more than a week ago that the Jerusalem decision is even “going to move the ball forward for the peace process.” To the extent that this is true, the White House could yet try to level the playing field by making parallel gestures to thePalestinians, ones that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be hard-pressed to oppose. After praising Trump’s “courageous and just decision” on Jerusalem, Netanyahu can scarcely defy the man about whom ­he said “there is no greater supporter of the Jewish people and the Jewish state.”

特朗普的顾问们仍然在为了实现他关于以巴和平的“最终决策”而努力。特朗普的联合国大使妮基•黑利(Nikki Haley)说,在一周多以前,耶路撒冷的决定甚至“能推动和平的进程。”在某种程度上这是真的,白宫可能会试图通过向巴勒斯坦做类似的姿态来营造公平竞争的环境,而这本杰明•内塔尼亚胡总理(Benjamin Netanyahu,以色列总理)将很难拒绝。在赞扬特朗普在耶路撒冷做出的“勇敢和公正的决定”之后,内塔尼亚胡总理几乎无法驳斥特朗普——他说:“没有人比他更支持犹太人民和犹太国家。”

With the situation on the ground still fluid, anything can happen. The Palestinians could yet reevaluate their predicament, change tactics and resolve to overwhelm Jerusalem with demonstrations or even take up arms against Israelis. But for the time being, spectacles like Abbas’ diplomatic snub of Vice PresidentMike Pence are probably the theatrical fare we should expect to see more of. Jerusalem’s residents will be thankful to get on with their routines.

由于实际情势仍然不稳定,任何事情都有可能发生。巴勒斯坦人可能会重新评估他们的困境,改变策略并决心用游行示威淹没耶路撒冷,甚至拿起武器对付以色列人。但就目前而言,一些令人跌破眼镜的事件,像是阿巴斯对美国副总统迈克•彭斯(Mike Pence)的外交怠慢可能只是一种表演,我们可能还会看到更多类似的表演。耶路撒冷的居民将会对能继续他们的日常生活感激。


翻译:沈芄兰
校对:Drunkplane
编辑:辉格@whigzhou

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