Cereals, appropriability, and hierarchy
谷物、可收夺性和等级制
Conventional theory suggests that hierarchy and state institutions emerged due to increased productivity following the Neolithic transition to farming. This column argues that these social developments were a result of an increase in the ability of both robbers and the emergent elite to appropriate crops. Hierarchy and state institutions developed, therefore, only in regions where appropriable cereal crops had sufficient productivity advantage over non-appropriable roots and tubers.
传统理论认为，等级制和国家产生的缘由在于：人类在新石器时代农业转向时出现了生产率增长。而本专栏则指出，上述社会发展是掠夺者和新生的精英分子收夺谷物的能力上升的结果。因此，仅仅是在那些易于收夺的谷物比其他不易收夺的块根和块茎作物在产量上拥有充分优势的地区，才会产生等级制和国家。
What explains underdevelopment?
欠发达的原因是什么？
One of the most pressing problems of our age is the underdevelopment of countries in which government malfunction seems endemic. Many of these countries are located close to the Equator. Acemoglu et al. (2001) point to extractive institutions as the root cause for underdevelopment. Besley and Persson (2014) emphasise the persistent effects of low fiscal capacity in underdeveloped countries.
我们这个时代最为紧迫的问题之一就是存在许多欠发达国家，而政府失灵在这些国家极为常见。它们大多数都位于赤道附近。Acemoglu等（2001年）认为，榨取型制度是欠发达的根本原因。Besley和Persson（2014年）强调，欠发达国家财政能力的低弱具有持久影响。
On the other hand, Diamond (1997) argues that it is geographical factors that explain why some regions of the world remain underdeveloped. In particular, he argues that the east-west orientation of Eurasia resulted in greater variety and productivity of cultivable crops, and in larger economic surplus, which facilitated the development of state institutions in this major landmass. Less fortunate regions, including New Guinea and sub-Saharan Africa, were left underdeveloped due to low land productivity.
而另一方面，Diamond（1997年）则提出，地理因素能够解释为什么世界某些地区会停留在欠发达状态。具体来说，他指出，欧亚大陆的东西走向使得适合驯化的谷物产量更大、种类更多，也使其经济剩余更多，后者为这块大陆上的国家制度的发展提供了便利。至于那些不那么幸运的地域，诸如新几内亚、撒哈拉以南非洲等，就因为土地生产率低下而停留在了欠发达状态。
In a recent paper (Mayshar et al. 2015), we contend that fiscal capacity and viable state institutions are conditioned to a major extent by geography. Thus, like Diamond, we argue that geography matters a great deal. But in contrast to Diamond, and against conventional opinion, we contend that it is not high farming productivity and the availability of food surplus that accounts for the economic success of Eurasia.
在最近的一篇论文（Mayshar等，2015年）中，我们主张：财政能力和国家机构的维系，很大程度上受地理条件限制。因此和Diamond一样，我们认为地理条件异常重要。不过与Diamond和其他传统观点不同的是，我们认为欧亚大陆的经济成功并非源于高农业生产率和获得粮食盈余的可能性。
- We propose an alternative mechanism by which environmental factors imply the appropriability of crops and thereby the emergence of complex social institutions.
- 我们提出了一个（用于解释国家起源的）替代机制：环境因素决定谷物的可收夺性，从而决定了复杂社会制度的产生。 To understand why surplus is neither necessary nor sufficient for the emergence of hierarchy, consider a hypothetical community of farmers who cultivate cassava (a major source of calories in sub-Saharan Africa, and the main crop cultivated in Nigeria), and assume that the annual output is well above subsistence.
为了理解为什么粮食盈余既不是等级制产生的必要条件，也不是充分条件，让我们假设：有这么一个种植木薯（撒哈拉以南非洲的一种主要热量来源，尼日利亚的主要农作物）的农民群体，并且假设每年的产量远远超过生存所需。
Cassava is a perennial root that is highly perishable upon harvest. Since this crop rots shortly after harvest, it isn’t stored and it is thus difficult to steal or confiscate. As a result, the assumed available surplus would not facilitate the emergence of a non-food producing elite, and may be expected to lead to a population increase.
木薯是多年生宿根植物，收获以后很容易腐烂。既然这种作物在收获后不久就会腐烂，它就不会被贮藏，因此很难被盗取或征用。结果就是，这种假定可以获得的粮食盈余将不会促成那些不事农业生产的统治精英的产生，而且可能会导致人口增长。
Consider now another hypothetical farming community that grows a cereal grain – such as wheat, rice or maize – yet with an annual produce that just meets each family’s subsistence needs, without any surplus. Since the grain has to be harvested within a short period and then stored until the next harvest, a visiting robber or tax collector could readily confiscate part of the stored produce. Such ongoing confiscation may be expected to lead to a downward adjustment in population density, but it will nevertheless facilitate the emergence of non-producing elite, even though there was no surplus.
现在设想另外一个种植谷类作物的农民群体——比如小麦、稻米或者玉米，且假定这些作物的年产量只能刚好满足每个家庭的生存需求，没有任何盈余。因为粮食作物要在很短时间内收割完毕，并需要一直贮藏到下次收获，所以袭击而来的盗贼或者税吏可以很容易地拿走储藏量的一部分。这种不断出现的损失，可能会导致人口密度下降，但是它却会促进不事生产的统治精英的产生，尽管完全没有粮食盈余。
Emergence of fiscal capacity and hierarchy and the cultivation of cereals
财政能力及等级制的产生与谷物栽培的关系
This simple scenario shows that surplus isn’t a precondition for taxation. It also illustrates our alternative theory that the transition to agriculture enabled hierarchy to emerge only where the cultivated crops were vulnerable to appropriation.
这个简单的设想表明，粮食盈余并不是税收的前提条件。同时，它也说明了我们所提出的新理论——农业转向促成了等级制的萌生，但这一过程只会发生在所培植的作物很容易被掠夺的地方。
- In particular, we contend that the Neolithic emergence of fiscal capacity andhierarchy was conditioned on the cultivation of appropriable cereals as the staple crops, in contrast to less appropriable staples such as roots and tubers.
- 具体来说，我们认为，财政能力与等级制在新石器时代出现，需要一个前提条件：以易于收夺的谷类为主要作物，而不是以不易收夺的块根和块茎作物等为主要作物。 According to this theory, complex hierarchy did not emerge among hunter-gatherers because hunter-gatherers essentially live from hand-to-mouth, with little that can be expropriated from them to feed a would-be elite.
根据这一理论，狩猎采集者群体中间没能产生复杂的等级制，是因为他们本质上是现挣现吃的，在他们身上很难征用到足够的资源来供养潜在的统治精英。
- Thus, rather than surplus facilitating the emergence of the elite, we argue that the elite only emerged when and where it was possible to expropriate crops.
- 因此，并非粮食盈余促进了统治精英的出现。我们认为，只有在粮食收成容易被征用的地方和时期，才会产生统治精英。 Due to increasing returns to scale in the provision of protection from theft, early farmers had to aggregate and to cooperate to defend their stored grains. Food storage and the demand for protection thus led to population agglomeration in villages and to the creation of a non-food producing elite that oversaw the provision of protection.
鉴于防备盗窃所带来的收益是随规模递增的，远古时代的农民们必须聚集在一起共同合作来守护他们的储粮。因此，食物贮藏和保护的需要使得人口集聚成村落，并且创造了负责提供保护而不事农业生产的精英。
Once a group became larger than a few dozen immediate kin, it is unlikely that those who sought protection services were as forthcoming in financing the security they desired. This public-good nature of protection was resolved by the ability of those in charge of protecting the stored food to appropriate the necessary means.
而一旦某个群体的数量超过了几十个直系亲属的规模的话，那么这些寻求保护性服务的人们就不太可能心甘情愿地支付维持众人渴望的安全所需的费用。解决安全保卫的这种公共物品性质，要求那些负责保护储粮的人提高自身对于必要财产的征用能力。
- That is, we argue that it was this transformation of the appropriation technology, due to the transition to cereals, which created both the demand for protection and the means for its provision.
- 也就是说，我们认为，是由于征用技术随着谷物种植出现而发生转变，才既创造了对于安全保卫的需求，也创造了提供安全保卫的手段。 This is how we explain the emergence of complex and hereditary social hierarchy, and eventually the state.
这就是我们解释复杂的、世袭性的社会等级制乃至国家最终形成的方法。
Applied to Diamond’s prototypic contrast between Eurasia and New Guinea, our theory suggests that the crucial distinction between these two regions is that farming in Eurasia relied on the cultivation of cereals, while in New Guinea it relied mostly on the cultivation of tubers (yam and taro, and, more recently, sweet potato) and bananas, where long-term storage is neither feasible (due to perishability) nor necessary (because harvesting is essentially non-seasonal).
应用于Diamond对比欧亚大陆和新几内亚的原型理论，我们的理论表明：这两个地域之间最关键的差别是欧亚大陆的农业依赖于谷物栽培，而新几内亚依赖的主要是块茎作物（白薯，芋头，最近也有甘薯）和香蕉，这些作物既不可能长期保存（因为易腐性），又没有必要长期保存（因为收获时节基本上是非季节性的）。
This provided farmers in New Guinea with sufficient immunity against bandits and potential tax collectors. More generally, we contend that the underdevelopment of tropical areas is not due to low land fertility but rather the reverse. Farmers in the tropics can choose to cultivate highly productive, non-appropriable tuber crops. This inhibits both the demand for socially provided protection and the emergence of a protection-providing elite. It is a curse of plenty.
这使得新几内亚的农民们对抢匪和潜在的税吏有足够的免疫力。更一般地说，我们认为，热带地区的欠发达原因并不是土壤产出低，而是恰好相反。热带地区的农民可以选择种植高产量而不易收夺的块茎作物。这样就既抑制了对于作为社会公共品提供的保护的需求，也妨碍了负责提供保护的统治精英的出现。这是一种资源诅咒。
In the empirical section of our paper we demonstrate that, contrary to the standard productivity-and-surplus theory, land productivity per se has no direct effect on hierarchy. We also show that, consistent with our theory, the cultivation of roots or tubers is indeed detrimental to hierarchy.
在论文的实证部分，我们证明了，与标准的生产率—盈余理论不同，土地生产率本身对于等级制形成没有直接影响。我们同时也表明，种植块根和块茎作物确实是不利于等级制的形成，这与我们的理论一致。
Empirical finding
实证结果
These results are established by employing two datasets with information on social hierarchy: a cross section and a panel of countries. For our cross-sectional analysis we use Murdock’s (1967) Ethnographic Atlas, which contains information on cultural, institutional, and economic features of 1,267 societies from around the world at an idealised time period of first contact with Europeans. Our main outcome variable is ‘jurisdictional hierarchy beyond the local community’. The Ethnographic Atlas also provides information on the major crop type grown by societies that practice agriculture.
上述结果是基于应用两个包含社会等级制信息的数据集而得出的：一组是截面数据，一组则是面板数据。在截面分析中，我们使用了Murdock的“民族志图集”（1967年），其中包含了世界各地1267个社群在刚刚接触欧洲人的理想化时间段内的文化、制度和经济特征方面的信息。我们主要的结果变量是“超越地方性社群的管辖层级”。“民族志地图”里面也提供了各个从事农业的社群所种植的主要作物种类的信息。
Since the cultivated crop is a decision variable, we instrument for the crop type by using data on land suitability for different crops from the Food and Agriculture Organisation. We first show that the decision whether to cultivate cereals as a main crop depends positively on the productivity advantage of cereals over roots and tubers (in terms of potential caloric yields per hectare).
因为农作物是我们模型中的决策变量【编注：指模型中可加以控制或先于其他参数而改变的主动变量】，我们利用联合国粮农组织有关土地对不同作物之适宜性的数据，来推测各社群的农作物类型。首先我们分析表明，是否将谷物作为主要作物，实际上依赖于谷物对于块根和块茎作物的生产率优势（以每公顷的潜在热量产出计算）。
We then find that societies tend to have a more complex hierarchal organisation where the productivity advantage of cereals over roots and tubers is higher, as predicted by our theory. Furthermore, we find that societies that practice agriculture are more hierarchical only where they cultivate cereals. This means that societies that cultivate roots and tubers have similar levels of hierarchy to those of pastoral or foraging societies.
而后我们发现，那些谷物比根块茎作物拥有更高生产率优势的社群，往往会拥有更复杂的层级机构，这与我们所提理论的预期相符。此外，我们发现，在从事农业生产的社群中，只有种植谷物的那些才具有更多的等级性质。这意味着，种植根块茎的社群与游牧社群或采集社群具有相似的社会分层水平。
We also show that land productivity, measured by the potential yield of calories per acre of the most productive crop in each area, does not affect hierarchy once we control for the productivity advantage of cereals. Thus, our empirical findings challenge the conventional argument that it is increased land productivity that leads to more hierarchical societies.
我们还展示了，一旦控制了谷物的生产率优势，土地生产率（以每个地方最适应生产的作物的每英亩潜在热量产出计算）就不会影响社会等级性。因此，我们的实证结果质疑了土地生产率提高导致社会等级性增强的传统理论。
Although this cross-sectional analysis accounts for a wide range of confounding factors, we cannot rule out completely that omitted variables may bias the estimates. To overcome this concern, we employ another dataset compiled by Borcan et al. (2014). This is a panel, based on present-day boundaries of 159 countries, with institutional information every five decades over the last millennium.
虽然这个截面分析考虑到了很多干扰因子，但我们依然不能完全排除遗漏某些变量造成推算偏差的可能性。为了解除这一疑虑，我们应用了另外一个由Borcan等人（2014年）编制的数据集。这是一项历时性数据，以159个国家的现代边界为基础，包含有过去一千年中每隔五十年的制度信息。
This panel enables us to exploit the ‘Columbian exchange’ of crops across continents as a natural experiment. The new crops that became available after 1492 in the New and the Old World changed both the productivity of land and the productivity advantage of cereals over roots and tubers in the majority of the countries in the sample.
这项历时性数据使得我们可以把农作物跨越各大陆的“哥伦布交换”当作一个自然实验来利用。对于样本国家中的大多数而言，新旧两个大陆在1492年之后所得到的新型农作物都既改变了他们的土地生产率，也改变了谷物相对块根块茎作物的生产率优势。
Consistent with our theory, the panel regressions confirm that an increase in the productivity advantage of cereals over roots and tubers has a positive impact on hierarchical complexity, while an increase in land productivity does not.
与我们的理论一致的是，基于历时性数据的回归分析证实：如果谷物作物相对于块根块茎作物的生产率优势增加，那就会对社会分层的复杂性产生正面影响，而土地生产率的增加则不会引发这种正面影响。
Concluding remarks
结论
These findings support our theory that it is not agricultural productivity and surplus per se that explains more complex hierarchical societies, but rather the productivity advantage of cereals over roots and tubers, the type of crop that is cultivated as a result, and the appropriability of the crop type. Given that the productivity of roots and tubers is typically high in the tropics, these results also support the claim that deep-rooted geographical factors may explain the current weakness of state institutions in these regions.
这些发现支持了我们的理论：农业生产率和粮食盈余本身并不能解释更为复杂的等级制社会的出现，毋宁说，它们之出现，原因在于谷物作物相对于块根块茎作物的生产率优势，也就是由此导致的栽培农作物的种类选择以及此种农作物的可收夺性。鉴于块根块茎作物在热带地区产量一般来说更高，上述结论也支持这样一种说法：这些地域的国家机构的孱弱现状，可能从深层次的地理原因方面可以得到解释。
翻译：Luis Rightcon（@Rightcon）
校对：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy）
编辑：辉格@whigzhou