卡扎菲之后的利比亚

​​​Libya Is a Failed State, Thanks to America

利比亚是个失败的国家，全拜美国所赐

​When the Obama administration led a 2011 NATO military intervention on behalf of rebels seeking to overthrow Libyan dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi, there was considerable optimism that the move would produce a much better country. Although U.S. officials and their media cheerleaders acknowledged that significant challenges remained for a post-Qaddafi Libya, they argued that the outcome could scarcely be worse than the oppressive status quo. Events over the past six years have proven their assumptions spectacularly wrong. Libya is now a cauldron of turmoil and Islamic radicalism.

2011年，当奥巴马政府站在利比亚反对派这边，领导北约出兵干预利比亚，以推翻独裁者穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲时，不少乐观的声音认为这一行动将促成一个更好的国家。即使美国官员以及他们的媒体啦啦队承认留给后卡扎菲时代利比亚的是严峻的挑战，他们仍坚称，结果很难比难以忍受的现状更差。过去六年发生的事情证明他们的设想彻彻底底地错了。利比亚现在是一个骚动混乱和伊斯兰极端主义并存的烂摊子。

As Qaddafi’s rule teetered, optimism in U.S. political and journalistic circles was pervasive. “Tripoli is slipping from the grasp of a tyrant,” President Obama stated in August 2011. “The people of Libya are showing that the universal pursuit of dignity and freedom is far stronger than the iron fist of a dictator.” Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham were equally gratified and positive. “The end of the Gadhafi regime is a victory for the Libyan people and the broader cause of freedom in the Middle East and throughout the world,” they concluded. The two senators, along with their Republican colleagues, Mark Kirk and Marco Rubio, gushed during a visit to “liberated” Tripoli that the rebels had “inspired the world.”

当卡扎菲的统治摇摇欲坠时，美国的政界和新闻界弥漫着乐观的情绪。“的黎波里正脱离暴君的掌控，”奥巴马总统在2011年8月发表声明时说道，“利比亚人民向我们表明：追求尊严和自由的力量远大于独裁者的铁拳。” 约翰·麦凯恩和Lindsey Graham两位参议员也同样乐观，他们宣称：“卡扎菲政权的结束是利比亚人民的胜利，并且能够带动中东地区以至世界各地更广泛的自由。”这两位参议院连同他们的共和党同事Mark Kirk和Marco Rubio在他们参观“解放”后的的黎波里时，盛赞反对派“鼓舞了世界”。

In his remarks regarding the dictator’s capture and gruesome death in October, Obama asserted that “the dark shadow of tyranny has been lifted” from Libya. He urged the citizens of that country to “build an inclusive and tolerant and democratic Libya that stands as the ultimate rebuke” to the former oppressor. Ivo H. Daalder, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, and Adm. James Stavridis were equally enthusiastic. Describing the intervention as “an extraordinary job, well done,” they called it “an historic victory for the people of Libya who, with NATO’s help, transformed their country from an international pariah into a nation with the potential to become a productive partner with the West.”

10月，在他关于那个独裁者被捕和惨死的言论中，奥巴马声称：“暴政的阴影已经（从利比亚）消失”。他敦促利比亚国民“建立一个包容、宽容和民主的利比亚，将此作为对独裁者的最大嘲讽”。美国驻北约大使Ivo H. Daalder和Adm. James Stavridis也同样热情，把这次干预形容成“一次完成出色的任务”，他们称其为“利比亚人民在北约的帮助下取得的历史性胜利，把他们的国家从一个国际弃儿变成了一个西方潜在的富有成效的合作伙伴。”

Much of the American news media chimed in about the glorious outcome of the U.S.-NATO intervention. New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof was euphoric about how the people he encountered in Libya loved America. “Americans are not often heroes in the Arab world, but as nonstop celebrations unfold here in the Libyan capital I keep running into ordinary people who learn where I’m from and then fervently repeat variants of the same phrase: Thank you, America!”

很多美国新闻媒体歌颂了这次美国和北约联合干预的辉煌成果。《纽约时报》专栏作家Nicholas Kristof欣喜地发现他在利比亚遇到的人非常热爱美国。“美国在阿拉伯世界常常并不是英雄。但是，在利比亚首都这儿不断的庆祝活动中我总是碰到很多普通民众，他们知道我从哪来之后就会热情地重复这两个词：谢谢，美国！”
There were only a few dissenting voices from the celebration. Journalist Glenn Greenwald, writing in Salon, expressed his astonishment and dismay at the lack of realism or even minimal skepticism on the part of policymakers.

欢呼声中只有少数不同声音。Glenn Greenwald记者在Salon网上对政策制订者缺乏现实主义态度和最起码的自省表达了震惊和失望。

I’m genuinely astounded at the pervasive willingness to view what has happened in Libya as some sort of grand triumph even though virtually none of the information needed to make that assessment is known yet, including: how many civilians have died, how much more bloodshed will there be, what will be needed to stabilize that country and, most of all, what type of regime will replace (Moammar) Gadhafi?

我真的很震惊大家普遍倾向于认为在利比亚发生的一切是伟大的胜利，即使我们并不掌握做出上述论断所需的信息，这些信息包括：有多少平民丧生，还将有多少流血事件，稳定政局需要些什么，而且，最重要的是，取代卡扎菲的是什么样的政权？

Greenwald’s apprehension proved well founded. Libya soon became the playground for both rival militias and rival governments. Writing in 2012, shortly after the death of U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and the other victims in Benghazi, Greenwald asked “how much longer will it be before we hear that military intervention in Libya is (again) necessary, this time to control the anti-U.S. extremists who are now armed and empowered by virtue of the first intervention? U.S. military interventions are most adept at ensuring that future U.S. military interventions will always be necessary.”

事实证明Greenwald的担心并非多余。利比亚马上变成了相互竞争的诸多民兵组织和诸多政府的游乐场。2012年美国大使Christopher Stevens和其他班加西事件的受害者遇难之后不久，Greenwald质问：“再过多久我们就会听到再次军事干预利比亚的呼声？这次是为了控制那些在第一次干预中武装起来并崛起的反美极端分子。美国的军事干预最擅长的就是确保需要更多的美国军事干预。”

A little more than three years later, the United States conducted a new round of airstrikes to prevent the establishment of an Islamic State (ISIS) beachhead in the Mediterranean coastal city of Sirte. ISIS infiltration already was becoming evident in late 2014 and early 2015. An early sign of the terrorist group’s presence was a mass beheading of twenty-one Egyptian Coptic Christians who had migrated to Libya to find work.

三年多之后，为防止ISIS在地中海沿岸城市苏尔特建立滩头堡，美国发动了新一轮空袭。在2014年底和2015年初ISIS的渗透已经变得很明显了。恐怖组织存在的一个早期迹象就是集体斩首了21名移居去利比亚找工作的埃及科普特基督徒。

The new U.S. intervention came at the invitation of the so-called unity government, a splicing of two previously feuding regimes, which had received official UN backing. The reality is that despite its name, the “unity government,” also known as the Government of National Accord, or GNA, is just one of several factions jockeying to govern Libya. Indeed, at the time the United States commenced its new air campaign, there were (and remain) three rival governments seeking control. A parliament-backed faction, the Tripoli-based General National Congress, also known as Libya Dawn, is closely allied to Islamist fighters, especially the powerful Misrata militia. A key rival to both claimants is the House of Representatives (HoR)—sometimes called the Council of Deputies—which is based in Tobruk. Gen. Khalifa Hiftar, who had led one of the rebel factions that unseated Qaddafi, is the de facto leader of the HoR.

应所谓联合政府的邀请，美国又一次进行了干预。这个联合政府，就是两个之前长期不和的政权组合到了一起，并得到了联合国的支持。可现实是，虽然名字是“联合政府”，也被叫做民族团结政府或GNA，但其实只是相互倾轧、争相统治利比亚的多个派系之一。确实，当美国开始新一轮空中行动的时候，有三股竞争势力争夺控制权。一方是受到国会支持的位于的黎波里的全体国民大会，也称作“利比亚黎明”，和伊斯兰战士组织有紧密联系，特别是强大的米苏拉塔民兵。双方的一个关键竞争对手是众议院（HoR）——有时叫做代表委员会——位于托布鲁克。Gen. Khalifa Hiftar曾领导一方反叛势力推翻卡扎菲，现在是HoR的实际上的领导人。【译注：上面所说的三股势力分别为GNA、Libya Dawn和HoR】

But even that tripartite feud does not capture the full extent of the chaos. An October 2017 incident illustrates just how convoluted the political and military rivalries have become. An air strike killed at least fifteen civilians in the eastern city of Derna, located about 165 miles west of the Egyptian border. At the time of the attack, Derna was controlled by a coalition of Islamist militants and rebel veterans known as the Derna Mujahideen Shura Council (DMSC), one of the numerous political/religious factions in the country. The source of the airstrike was unclear. The coastal city had long been under siege by the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) (General Hiftar’s armed wing), which previously conducted air strikes against it, as had Egypt, which backs the LNA.

但是，三足鼎立并不足以概括利比亚当前的乱局。10月27日的一场事故就揭示了政治和军事竞争已经到了多么复杂的地步。一场空袭造成了东部城市德尔纳至少50人死亡，德尔纳距离埃及西部边境165英里。空袭的时候，德尔纳正受控于伊斯兰武装分子和名为“德尔纳圣战者舒拉委员会（DMSC）”的反叛老兵组织，后者是这个国家多股政治/宗教势力中的一方。空袭的来源尚不清楚。这个沿海城市长期受到位于东部的利比亚国家军队（LNA）（Hiftar将军下属的武装派别）的攻击，LNA因为有埃及支持，曾经对其实施过一次空袭。

However, both the LNA and the Egyptian government denied carrying out the most recent raid. Indeed, Egypt’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning the strikes for killing innocent civilians. One Egyptian TV station with close ties to the Cairo government insisted that Libyan planes had conducted the attack. The LNA, though, denied that assertion and said there had been a “terrorist attack” in the area. The Tripoli-based, UN-backed government, which opposes the LNA and maintains very loose ties with the DMSC, denounced the air strikes and announced three days of mourning.

但是，LNA和埃及政府都否认实施了最近的袭击。而且埃及外交部发布了声明谴责此次攻击杀害了无辜平民。一家和开罗政府有密切联系的埃及电视台坚称利比亚飞机制造了这次攻击。然而，LNA否认了上述猜测，声称是恐怖袭击。总部位于的黎波里的，受到联合国支持，与LNA对立，同时又和DMSC保有松散联系的政府谴责了此次空袭并宣布举行为期三天的哀悼。
Even that was not the extent of the murky, multisided struggle, however. The DMSC had controlled Derna since 2015. It achieved that status by expelling ISIS, which had established a foothold there the previous year. In other words, one militant Islamic group drove out a rival militant Islamic group. Such is the nature of political and military affairs in fractured, post–Qaddafi Libya.

但即使那样也不是这场黑暗复杂的多方斗争的全部。2015年以来DMSC就控制了德尔纳。他们通过驱逐ISIS达到这一目的，ISIS前一年在那建立了据点。换句话说，一个伊斯兰军事组织驱赶了另一个伊斯兰军事组织。在支离破碎的后卡扎菲时代的利比亚，这正是政治、军事纷争的特质。

The chaos has strengthened Islamic extremism inside Libya and led to massive refugee flows across the Mediterranean—a humanitarian nightmare rivaling the one taking place in Syria. Proponents of U.S.-led regime-change wars have yet another catastrophic failure on their record.

混乱加剧了伊斯兰极端主义，迫使大量难民穿过地中海逃难——一场堪比叙利亚的人道主义噩梦。鼓吹美国发动政权颠覆战争的人们又多了一项灾难性失败的记录。