智利欲步委内瑞拉后尘？

​​Chile, jewel in the free market crown, follows Venezuela’s road to ruin
自由市场皇冠之珠智利步委内瑞拉毁灭之路

Latin America has raised its news profile as a consequence of two recent presidential election results. In Guatemala, Jimmy Morales, a former comedian, won the presidency with a landslide majority and in Argentina the centre-right opposition candidate Mauricio Macri, mayor of Buenos Aires, held Daniel Scioli, of the Peronist Front for Victory, anointed heir of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to an unprecedented run-off vote in November.

最近两次总统选举的结果，提高了拉美的新闻曝光度。在危地马拉，前笑星Jimmy Morales以压倒性多数赢得总统职位；在阿根廷，中右的反对党候选人、布宜诺斯艾利斯市市长Mauricio Macri得票出人意料地与“胜利阵线”候选人、克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯【译注：阿根廷时任总统】的指定继承人Daniel Scioli胶着，以至于要在11月举行第二轮投票。【编注：Macri在第二轮投票中胜出，已就任阿根廷总统】

Both events show there is a stirring in favour of change in a region that, but for the scourges of corruption, state dependency and Marxist utopianism should be a powerhouse of wealth creation.

这两个事件都表明，该地区出现了一种渴望变革的势态；要不是由于腐败横行、国家依赖症和马克思主义乌托邦幻想，这一地区本该是创造财富的动力之源。

But, with one notable exception – the historical experience of Chile in the second half of the 20th century – Latin America has never realised its economic potential. During the period 1970-2004 annual per capita GDP growth in Latin America averaged 0.51 per cent, compared with 2.95 per cent in Asia. In the most recent decade GDP per capita recorded impressive increases in some countries, only to fall back in the later years. Extreme volatility is the hallmark of Latin American economies, aggravated by factors such as the slowdown in China’s growth rate.

但是，除了一个显著例外——20世纪下半叶的智利——整个拉美从未发挥过其经济潜能。1970至2004年间，拉美的人均GDP年增长率平均只有0.51%，而亚洲有2.95%。过去十年间，某些国家出现了引人瞩目的人均GDP增长，但后来又陷于停滞。波动极大是拉美经济体的标志性特征，并因诸如中国增长率放缓等因素而更加恶化。

The systemic problem afflicting the Latin American economy, however, is political. It was perceptively analysed in 1996 in the book Guide to the Perfect Latin American Idiot, written by three free-market authors. The factors they identified as promoting backwardness in Latin America were an obsession with revolution, economic nationalism, hatred of the United States, trust in government as an agent of social justice and a passion for caudillismo – rule by a strongman. At the time the book was written these malignant forces appeared to be receding, but they were reborn with the advent of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in Bolivia.

然而，伤害拉美经济的系统性麻烦来自政治方面。在1996年《写给拉美纯种白痴的指南》一书中，三位主张自由市场的作者对这个问题有过敏锐深入的分析。他们认为，导致拉美发展缓慢的因素包括对革命的痴迷、经济民族主义、对美国的仇恨、对政府实施社会正义的信任，以及对考迪罗主义——即强人统治——的酷爱。在该书写作的年代，这些有害力量似乎都在消退，但是，随着乌戈·查韦斯降临委内瑞拉，以及埃沃·莫拉莱斯降临玻利维亚，它们又复活了。

But the prophets of the free market have a concrete template in Chile’s bold experiment with capitalism under Augusto Pinochet, from 1973 to 1990 – what Milton Friedman called the “Miracle of Chile”. Free marketeers are often hesitant about invoking that success story because of its association with the military dictatorship that overthrew “democratically elected” president Salvador Allende. He was indeed democratically elected in Congress, with the help of Christian Democrat votes. There the democracy ended.

但是自由市场的先知们有一个具体的样板，那就是奥古斯托·皮诺切特治下的智利在1973至1990年间所进行的资本主义大胆实验——即米尔顿·弗里德曼所称的“智利奇迹”。自由市场主义者通常不太愿意提起这一成功故事，因为它跟军事独裁牵连在一起，后者推翻了“经由民主选举的”萨尔瓦多·阿连德总统。阿连德确实是由国会民主选举的，靠的是来自基督教民主党的选票。但民主到此为止就结束了。

Three years later Congress declared him guilty of 20 violations of the Constitution and national laws, including support of the North Korean-trained militia quaintly known as the Groups of Personal Friends, illegal arrests, torture, press censorship and confiscation of private property. When Allende’s supporters plotted a violent coup to eliminate the leadership of the armed forces and complete the Marxist reconfiguration of the country, Pinochet launched a pre-emptive strike. His seizure of power was subsequently legitimised at a referendum in 1980 by a 67 per cent majority vote.

三年后，国会宣布阿连德犯下了20项违反宪法和国家法律的罪状，包括向雅号为 “私友团”、由朝鲜训练的民兵组织提供支持，非法逮捕，施用酷刑，新闻审查和没收私人财产。当阿连德的支持者策划暴力政变，试图推翻军方领导，完成对国家的马克思主义改造时，皮诺切特先发制人发动了攻击。他的夺权随后在1980年的一次全民公决中获得67%的多数票从而得以合法化。

But the economic background to these events remains the enduring lesson. By 1973, Allende’s rule had produced an inflation rate of 605 per cent, a GDP growth of –4.3, a fiscal deficit of 30.5 per cent of GDP and, while public sector salaries had risen by 48 per cent, a 38 per cent drop in wages, in real terms. More than 150 industries had been nationalised, with 70 per cent of firms confiscated by the state.

但这些事件背后的经济脉络仍是不灭的教益。到1973年，阿连德的统治已然导致了605%的通胀率，GDP增长率为-4.3%，财政赤字占到GDP的30.5%，公共部门薪水上涨了48%，实际工资则下跌了38%。超过150个行业被国有化，70%的企业被国家充公。

Under Pinochet, Chilean free-market economists known as “The Chicago Boys”, under the tutelage of Milton Friedman and Arnold Harberger, set about reforming the economy. After just two years the fiscal deficit was reduced to 2.9 per cent. From 1975, public spending was cut by 50 per cent. The closed economy was opened up to foreign investors. Between 1985 and 1988 a total of 30 state companies was privatised. There were mistakes – the pegging of the peso to the US dollar was the most egregious – and state mechanisms were employed more than was desirable, but the miracle was real and enduring.

在皮诺切特治下，智利那些被称为“芝加哥小子们”的自由市场经济学家，在米尔顿·弗里德曼和阿诺德·哈伯格的指导下，着手开始经济改革。仅仅两年，财政赤字就被削减到2.9%。1975年之后，公共开支被砍掉50%。封闭经济得以对外国投资者开放。自1985至1988年，共有30家国有企业实现私有化。错误也有——将比索与美元挂钩就是其中最恶劣的——而且对国家机器的使用超出适度范围，但奇迹真实且持久。

Long after Pinochet voluntarily relinquished power and restored democracy after losing a second referendum in 1988, Chile prospered in its new free-market identity. By 2006 it had doubled its GDP. That year marked the return of the left to government under Michelle Bachelet, but not yet to the extravagances of Allende. A combination of parliamentary arithmetic and awareness that any party that tinkered with a market system that had made Chile the richest nation in Latin America would suffer a severe backlash restrained socialist ideologues.

在1988年第二次全民公决失利后，皮诺切特自愿放弃权力并恢复民主制。经过一段时间以后，智利因其自由市场新定位而持续繁荣。到2006年，GDP已经翻了一倍。在这一年，左派回归Michelle Bachelet领导下的政府，但还没有到阿连德的那种严重程度。人们意识到，任何政党，如果瞎摆弄那已令智利成为拉美最富裕国家的市场体系，必将遭受剧烈反对，这一认识与议会政治的算术相结合，对社会主义空想家构成了限制。

In 2013, however, Bachelet returned to power with an outright majority and has now succumbed to the temptation to resurrect the failed Marxist prescriptions of the past. Chile is turning into a high tax economy, with the government imposing an increase in corporate taxes aimed at generating an extra $8.3bn in revenue, equivalent to 3 per cent of GDP. The budget for 2015 envisaged a 9.8 per cent increase in spending, including a 27.5 per cent rise in public sector investment, relying on creaming off $2.3bn from the tax hike.

然而， Bachelet在2013年获得绝对多数支持，重新掌权。这次他禁不住诱惑，再度祭出了过去曾遭遇失败的马克思主义药方。如今智利正在转变为一个高税收经济体，政府提高企业所得税率，意在获得83亿的额外收入，而这相当于GDP的3%。2015年财政预算支出将提高9.8%，包括公共部门投资增长27.5%，而这需要从增加的税收所得中分走23亿。

But this programme caused investors to close their wallets, while a slump in copper and gold prices combined with the threat of US interest rate rises are creating a perfect storm to halt Chilean growth. There could be no worse time for the grandstanding Bachelet agenda to be imposed. The president’s priority is education, but her “reforms” are a return to socialism.

但这一计划导致投资者捂紧钱包，与此同时，铜价和金价下跌，再加上美国提高利率的风险，这些因素正在共同制造一场完美风暴，拖住智利的增长步伐。要实施哗众取宠的Bachelet计划，现在的时机是再糟糕不过了。智利总统首先要关注的是教育，但她的“改革”却是对社会主义的回归。

In 1981 the Pinochet government introduced education vouchers, which proved an outstanding success. By combining vouchers with parental contributions children from modest backgrounds can attend private schools which practise academic selection. It is the path to self-fulfilment for millions: today 1.9 million Chilean pupils attend private schools via the voucher system. But Bachelet’s new education law prohibits selection, bans use of vouchers to attend for-profit schools and outlaws parental contributions in schools that receive government subsidies.

1981年，皮诺切特政府引入了教育券，后被证明为一项杰出的成功之举。教育券与家长资助相结合，使得普通家庭背景的孩子也能上得起实行择优录取的私立学校。它是数百万人的自我实现之路：今天有190万智利学生通过教育券制度进入私立学校。但Bachelet的新教育法禁止择优，禁止使用教育券入读营利性学校，并禁止获得政府补助的学校接受家长资助。

It beggars belief that, with the example of basket-case Venezuela before them, any Latin American politicians should be so perverse as to take the socialist path to assured beggary. But that is what is happening to Chile. Already GDP growth has slumped from 4.2 per cent in 2013 to 1.9 per cent last year; inflation rose from1.8 per cent to 4.4 per cent; and Chile’s external debt increased from 47.2 per cent of GDP to 56.5 per cent. Subverting the free market is an act of madness. What will it take to make the Latin American leftist idiots confront reality?

有委内瑞拉陷于瘫痪的先例在前，我们难以想象任何拉美政客还会如此自甘堕落，走上通向绝境的社会主义道路。但这就是智利正在发生的事情。GDP增长已经从2013年的4.2%掉落到去年的1.9%；通胀率已经从1.8%上升到4.4%；外债已经从占GDP的47.2%增加到56.5%【编注：2015年已升至64.3%】。颠覆自由市场乃精神错乱之举。到底要怎样才能让拉美的左派白痴们面对现实？