Troubling Signs of Minimum Wage Damage in Los Angeles
洛杉矶最低工资带来的破坏令人不安
The recent spate of local minimum wage hikes around the country is generating a lot of new data for economists to study, but so far I’ve been hesitant to focus on case studies.
最近，遍及全国的一大波地方最低工资上涨浪潮，为经济学家的研究带来的了大量新鲜数据，但是到目前为止我仍在犹豫是否要将注意力集中于个案研究。
There are a lot of reasons to be cautious in looking for minimum wage impacts on a city-by-city basis: it is easy to cherry pick, employment data at local levels can be volatile, growth rates rather than levels may be affected, and areas with stronger than average economies may be raising minimum wages.
我们有许多理由对按城市考察最低工资的影响保持谨慎：这很容易因选择性取样而造成确认偏差，地方层面的就业数据可能不够稳定，受影响的可能是增长率而不是绝对水平，并且高于平均经济水平的区域更可能提高最低工资水平。
In addition, disagreement in the literature on minimum wages illustrates that different comparisons or controls can easily give different answers. However, as I’ve been watching the data, one case is becoming too stark to ignore: Los Angeles.
另外，学术文献中关于最低工资水平的争议表明，不同的比较方式或变量控制很容易得出不同结果。然而，就我一直在观察的数据而言，有一个例子过于惹眼以至于无法被忽略：洛杉矶。
In September, 2014, Los Angeles City approved hike to the minimum wage for hotel workers of $15.37. The wage went into effect in July, 2015, for hotels with 300 or more rooms, and will go into effect July, 2016 for 150-plus-room hotels.
2014年9月，洛杉矶市通过了将酒店工人最低工资水平上调到15.37美元的决议。对于客房数量超过300间的酒店，新的工资条例将在2015年7月生效，而数量超过150间客房的酒店则在2016年7月执行该法。
Given the delay in the wage hike, it is not obvious that employment would be affected already. But BLS data on the accommodations industry (NAICS 721) for Los Angeles county is starting to look like serious impacts are occurring already.
考虑到工资水平上调时间上的延迟，并不能马上就看到它给就业率带来的影响。但是根据劳工统计局（BLS）关于洛杉矶住宿行业（北美工业分类系统 721）的数据，严重的影响看来已然出现。
【图1】洛杉矶酒店业开始出现失业情况
The decline in year-to-year growth rates starts to show up in October, 2014, when growth falls below 2% for the first time in more than two years. Then in January, 2015, employment starts to actually shrink, and by June it is down 4.8% year over year. Zooming out, it’s clear that job losses of this magnitude in Los Angeles are not seen outside of recessions.
年度增长速度在2014年10月开始出现下滑，增速首次连续超过两年低于2%。2015年1月，就业率实际上开始萎缩，到6月同比下降4.8%。而当我们放眼全局，很明显，洛杉矶这种程度的职位流失在只有在衰退中才能看到。
【图2】洛杉矶酒店业出现衰退迹象
The BLS does not report seasonally adjusted data, but I did the adjustment using the same procedure they use and found accommodations have fallen by around 1,000 jobs so far this year.
劳工局并不会每个季度都发布调整后的数据，但是我使用跟他们一样的程序得出了自己的调整数据，并且发现到今年为止，住宿行业已经失去了约1000个工作岗位。
There are, of course, a lot of reasons for caution here. Data from the more exhaustive QCEW survey suggests the decline in job growth in accommodations is overstated in the data I use here through the end of 2014. Unfortunately, QCEW data is only available through December, 2014.
当然，我们有许多理由慎于判断。来自劳工局的就业与工资水平季度统计（QCEW）中的更详实数据表明，我使用的2014年住宿行业就业增长率的下降被高估了。不幸的是，可供使用的QCEW数据只到2014年12月。
This means that some of the job losses may be revised away in the future. However, the declines through June are large enough that is seems very likely that real employment declines are occurring.
这意味着被我计入的一些职位流失在将来可能会被更正过来。然而，整个6月的就业率下降已经足够大了，以至于看起来似乎很有可能真正的就业率下降正在发生。
Another reason to be cautious is that the employment effects are showing up after the hike passed but before it takes effect. Businesses are forward looking so this is not impossible, but the magnitude of the declines before the wage hike takes effect are somewhat surprising especially for the service sector. Finally, the hotel minimum wage hike is only affecting the City of Los Angeles, and this data is for the larger county of Los Angeles.
另一个警惕的理由是，就业效应是在上调最低工资的法案通过之后但是生效之前显现出来的。但是，在上调工资生效之前就业率下降的程度有点让人吃惊，特别是服务部门。然而商业具有前瞻性，所以这也不是没有可能。最终，上调酒店最低工资的浪潮仅仅波及洛杉矶市，这项数据覆盖了范围更大的洛杉矶县。
Reason for concern
关注的理由
Overall, the caveats here are significant, and despite the stark and significant decline in employment, the data should be considered just very suggestive at this point. However, it does represent one more reason to be concerned about the forthcoming minimum wage hike that will be affecting all Los Angeles County workers in all industries.
总的说来，不详预兆是足够明显的，但尽管就业出现了明显且重大的下降，目前的数据仍应被视为只是推测性的。然而，它的确呈现了另一个理由，让我们关切即将到来的最低工资提升是否会影响到洛杉矶县所有工人。
The service sector, and hotels in particular, should be less responsive to minimum wage hikes than many other lower wage employers. Tourism industries should be less price elastic than tradeables like manufacturing, and hotels don’t have a lot of alternatives, which makes transitioning the building to some less-labor-intensive use less likely.
服务部门，特别是酒店，应该比许多其他较低工资水平雇主对这次工资上调的反应更小。旅游业应该比生产贸易货物的制造业表现出更低的价格弹性，并且酒店没有很多替代选择，这使得酒店建筑物不太可能转换成一些低劳动密度的用途上。
Hotels, in other words, should have been more safe. Instead, they seem to be taking a big hit. While what we are seeing in Los Angeles so far is nowhere near conclusive, it should worry those who have been less concerned about big minimum wage hikes.
换而言之，酒店行业原本应该是比较安全的。但是，看来他们即将遭受重创。就目前我们在洛杉矶所看到的景象还远不稳定，应该担忧的倒是那些对最低工资水平大幅上调仍缺乏关注的人们。
翻译：带菜刀的诗人（@带菜刀的诗人_）
校对：迈爸（@麦田的字留地）
编辑：辉格@whigzhou